Draft Reaction: Putting the Grossness of the Will Anderson Trade into Perspective

Author: Billy Jones

Introduction

Last night's draft was crazy. I flew to Denver for a business trip and landed about 15 minutes before the draft started. I wasn’t able to watch the first five picks live on television, but I was kept up to date through twitter and a couple different group chats I had going with my buddies. The top of the draft started with a bang within the first 3 picks and the wildness continued throughout the night as we saw multiple trades as well as players go way earlier and later than expected and some weren’t even picked at all. There is so much to unpack from what went down and therefore I wanted to do a couple quick blog posts on some of the shenanigans of the night (and what will inevitably ensue this weekend). Logically the place to start is at the beginning so in this first post I am going to unpack my thoughts on the Houston Texans trade up to pick #3 to select Will Anderson from Alabama.

Trade Details

Houston Texans Acquire

• 2023 #3 pick
• 2023 #105

Arizona Cardinals Acquire

• 2023 #12 pick
• 2023 #33 pick
• 2024 first round pick
• 2024 third round pick

Analysis

Anyone who knows the football space pretty well can tell you by looking at the trade that the Texans gave up a lot to move up to the #3 pick. I could talk about the true value of each of the picks through using surplus value and do that whole discussion to truly quantify the value gained in the trade, but I think there is an easier way to illustrate this. By using the concept of “putting a face to a name” we can see what the implications of this trade may mean in terms of real players.

Houston Texans Acquire

• 2023 #3 pick – Will Anderson
• 2023 #105 – productive player that fills out the roster. Not likely to find a premier talent here but picks like this are how teams complete a roster.

Arizona Cardinals Acquire

• 2023 #12 pick – Jahmyr Gibbs – LOL – a fairer pick for illustrative purposes would be the player immediately after so Lukas Van Ness. The Cardinals did ultimately trade up using this pick to select Paris Johnson Jr. but that is a different transactions and let's not get distracted.  
• 2023 #33 pick – one of the following names that will be available after the Pittsburgh Steelers make their selection. Michael Mayer, Joey Porter Jr. , Brian Branch, Steve Avila, and so on. There are a ton of very talented players still on the board.
• 2024 first round pick – this is the Texans pick, and not the Cleveland Browns pick, which the Texans do have the rights to also via the Watson trade. This is a key distinction as the Texans as expected to stink once again in 2023 based upon the current NFL betting markets. The Texans are currently tied for the lowest win total of 5.5 which would make it fair to assume this pick has a really good chance to land in the top 10 and potential even in the top 5. With the Texans already having drafted their quarterback of the future in CJ Stroud they could have used this pick to turn their attention to the best non-quarterback prospect available (e.g., Marvin Harrison Jr., Brock Bowers, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, etc.). Now this gives Arizona, the only other team that has a win total of 5.5, two picks with the highest likelihood of being #1 and #2 overall upon the season win totals betting markets. The Arizona Cardinals will be in the drivers seat at the top of next years draft.
• 2024 third round pick – productive player that fills out the roster yet a better asset than the pick given up #105. 3rd round picks typically land between 65 to 96 depending on compensatory picks for the year. As stated above the Texans are expected to be not very good and will likely be closer to 65 than 96. 

Conclusion

When laid out like this, woof if you are a Texans fan. I truly hope that Will Anderson becomes a perennial Pro Bowler and Defensive Player of the Year candidate because anything less would feel like an egregious overpay. From what I heard throughout the pre-draft process, Will Anderson is going to be a really really really good NFL player but seemed to lack that elite level potential to become a Bosa or Mack level player. That being said, the media was very wrong about a lot of things throughout the pre-draft process this year and the Texans management clearly believe in Anderson’s talent as they put significant capital into acquiring him. We will have to wait and find out to see who ultimately "wins" the trade but one thing I am certain of is the Arizona Cardinals will be a key player in the top of the 2024 NFL draft. Thanks for reading this post and stay tuned for tomorrows edition as I discuss the Bijan Robinson pick by the Atlanta Falcons and why the pick Terry Fontenot made me sad as a Falcons fan.