Draft Reaction: Why Terry, Why?

Author: Billy Jones

Introduction

Hey football analytics fam, I am back with another 2023 NFL Draft reaction blog. In this blog I will be commenting on my hometown Atlanta Falcons first round selection of star running back Bijan Robinson with the #8 overall pick. On ESPN I saw videos of Falcons fans rejoicing at local bars after the pick, but  I had a different reaction. My reaction was filled with four letter expletives, and I even threw up a tweet about how the Falcons needed to get their shit together or I’ll have to switch my allegiances to my fiancée’s hometown team (fortunately she is from Philadelphia and the Eagles could be a fun bandwagon to jump on). My frustration with the pick is not that the Falcons drafted the best running back prospect in recent memory but around the concept of continued poor roster construction by Terry Fontenot. This pick completely ignored the concept of positional value/cost and Fontenot has now selected 2 non-premium position players in the last 3 drafts, destroying the value that those picks could have had on the Falcons balance sheet. In this blog I am going to unpack the contract considerations of picking Bijan Robinson at the #8 overall pick as well as put into context the literal dollars wasted by poor roster construction by Terry Fontenot. Without further ado, let’s jump into my analysis of the debacle of a pick that was Bijan Robinson.

Note, I do generally subscribe to the thinking that the salary cap isn’t real, but this post isn’t about that. This is about the efficient and effective allocation of resources that a General Manager has available to them.

Pick Details

The Atlanta Falcons selected Running Back Bijan Robinson from University of Texas with the #8 pick. Per Over-the-cap.com his rookie based upon pick slot is:

Total Contract Value w/o 5th Year Option: $22,909,022

Average per Year w/o 5th Year Option: $5,727,255

* Rookie Salaries are predetermined based upon where the pick the player was drafted. *

Analysis

As stated in the introduction, my frustration around the Bijan Robinson pick was not specifically around the player acquired but in relation to the squandering of 2 picks in 3 years that could have returned huge surplus value on the Falcons balance sheet. What do I mean by surplus value? In basic terms, surplus value is the difference between a player’s on field value (as translated into dollars) and their contract cost that comes from the difference between the rookie wage scale as defined by the CBA versus what the fair market value of that player would be if they were able to enter the free agency market. An easy way to illustrate this is by reviewing the delta between the #8 pick contract costs and the top contracts at each position. 

As shown above, the surplus value for a running back picked at #8 in the draft is much lower than the premium positions of Interior Line, Edge, and Wide Receiver. In fact, the only way that picking a running back at #8 would result in a greater surplus value than a premium position would be if Bijan performs as the actual best running back in the league and the premium position player was not a top 20 player at their position. Not just really good, but the absolute best running back in the league. If he performs as just a top 5 running back, then the spread between surplus value for the premium positions and Bijan becomes even greater. 

Roster Construction Example

Terry Fontenot was busy this offseason which gives me an opportunity to put together a “what if” situation to illustrate his poor roster construction.

Actual Acquisitions:

Bijan Robinson - #8 pick – Rookie Running Back. 4-year contract with 5th year options. $22,909,022 total value, $5,727,255 average per year, $3,992,461 cap hit in 2023.

David Onyemata – 30-year-old veteran Interior D-Line. Signed a 3-year contract with the Falcons this off season. $35,000,000 total value, $11,666,667 average per year, $8,000,000 cap hit in 2023.

Totals – $17,393,922 total average per year and $11,992,461 total 2023 cap hit. 

Hypothetical Acquisitions:

Jalen Carter - #8 pick – Rookie Interior D-Line. 4-year contract with 5th year options. $22,909,022 total value, $5,727,255 average per year, $3,992,461 cap hit in 2023.

Miles Sanders– 25-year-old veteran Running Back. Signed a 4-year contract with the Carolina Panthers this off season and was the highest paid free agent running back this off season. $25,000,000 total value, $6,250,000 average per year, $2,755,000 cap hit in 2023.

Totals – 11,977,255 total average per year and 6,747,461 total 2023 cap hit. 

While working with NFL contracts are a lot more complicated than what is illustrated above, the concepts shown here are clear. In the hypothetical acquisitions the Falcons saved $5,416,667 and $5,245,000 in terms of average per year and 2023 cap, respectively, while getting a player at a position with a much higher surplus value ceiling and a much safer surplus value floor. Additionally, the $5m+ saved from the hypothetical acquisition could have been reallocated to an additional player on the Falcons roster. When considering the additional player that could be added to the roster as well as the replaceability and lack of longevity of running backs, Terry Fontenot’s roster construction and selection of Bijan Robinson comes even more into question.

Conclusion

While I have spent the last 800 words bashing Terry Fontenot’s NFL draft picks and roster construction, it is undeniable that the Falcons have amassed some exciting young offensive talent in the last 3 drafts. As a Falcon’s fan I hope to be proven wrong about my “Bijan Robinson was a horrible pick” opinion but unless Bijan becomes a Hall of Fame, multiple Pro Bowls, lead the Falcons to a Conference and Super Bowl title level player I am going to continue to believe the Falcons should have drafted another position with this pick. I look forward to seeing what the Falcon’s do with the rest of their draft and I have high hopes we can turn this draft into a success, but I just have to say “Terry Fontenot, you made me sad yesterday”. Thank you for reading and stay tuned for more drafts and football analytics coming soon!

Side note, hey Terry Fontenot, if you ever read this you should message me and let’s have a chat about how we can get the Falcons back to another Super Bowl. I am an Atlanta Falcons fan living in Boston and I really could use some success by our team so I can stop receiving “28-3” chirps from all my friends.

All data used in this post was obtained from overthecap.com