2024 Early Best Ball Full In-Depth Deep Dive

Author: Chris Buonagura (@valuedraftpicks)

Introduction:

I do not expect people to read this but I am posting it for accountability in 2024. This guide is based entirely off ADP from Underdog’s Big Board early 2024 Fantasy Football Contest. The goal is to be predictive and get ahead of ADP trends to create a contest-winning strategy. 


In 2023, I finished 327th overall in Best Ball Mania 4 and tied for 3rd in the Mitten (playoff Best Ball contest). I did not identify and hit on Puka Nacua or Sam LaPorta in 2023. However, my exposure portfolio had an abundance of hits (all drafted over 15%),  including: Kyren Williams, Devon Achane, Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Gus Edwards, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, David Njoku, and Tre McBride. 


Overall Strategy:

This guide will provide desired player exposure at ADP and written notes/thoughts on each team. I included all players with a relevant ADP and some fringe players just for reference. Each player has their current Underdog ADP (February 2024), their positional ranking based on ADP, and the ideal exposure I would like after 150 drafts. 


I use a very simple approach to exposure balance. Assuming ADP is static: a balanced strategy would see each player drafted 1 in every 12 drafts. This also assumes you draft an equal amount from each draft position. Therefore, 8% exposure (roughly 1/12) is what I consider an average-balanced exposure. A player present on 8% of my teams would be on 12 of 150 total teams drafted.


In general, I would like my exposure portfolio to reflect a combined approach of (Exposure balance X aggressive player bets). Yes, you want variance and even exposure in many parts of the draft. The correct aggressive exposure bets can drastically drive up/down your advance rates. Imagine your advance rate if you took Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua on 50% of teams last season as 17th and 18th round picks. 


Bear in mind, I may love a player but lower my exposure because I do not like their cost (and vice-versa). Also, in the earliest of rounds, I typically spread exposure very even as most of these guys belong there. Typically, factors that end up separating early round players result from unpredictable variance/injuries. For example, 2023 Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase were still good picks despite their Fantasy Failures. 


The key is to focus on big hitters rather than floor players when possible. Underdog is half PPR so projectable TD volume is a massive driver of value. Low TD volume offenses are much harder to find league winners in. 


Here is a general mindset breakdown for each position group:


QB

Total drafted per team: 2-3

ADP trend: Late round QB is not dead, it has simply shifted a bit. The top 2-3 Quarterbacks (Josh Allen, Hurts, maybe Mahomes) need to be worked at elevated ADPs due to their game-breaking ceiling. Once you pass the elite among the elite, you find that the tenants of late round QB strategy begin to show their face again (especially among pocket passers). Rushing QBs are always good bets regardless of cost because of their high scoring floors. There will also be 1-2 pocket passers that get the job done each season, thus you can’t only draft expensive mobile QBs. Ideally, you want a QB1 who can score 350+ fantasy points, but you can still find value in any QB that gets at least 250 fantasy points. Anyone that can't clear 250 points is basically worthless outside of boom games in the fantasy playoffs. 


RB

Total drafted per team: 5-7

ADP trend: The drop-off from RB1 to RB12 is much more drastic than for WR. Therefore, you absolutely need a top 6-8 RB who can score 250-300+ fantasy points. Truly, I want someone that can get over 300 total fantasy points. Sadly, these guys barely exist anymore with offense turning to passing and committee play much more often. I want to take swings at early RBs as they have a clear 300+ upside but I do not want to overdo it on one team because you will miss too much WR value. The RB dead zone is real and we will be navigating through it in this guide. Deep round RBs win Best Ball contests. You have to take stabs at outside bets (i.e. 2023 Kyren Williams). 


WR

Total drafted per team: 7-9

ADP trend: The top 3-5 WRs each season stand out and make a true difference to your advance rate. After the elite performers, the next 15-25 WRs don't separate in a meaningful way in a Best Ball format. You need multiple top 30/40 finishers if you expect to advance a team and possibly win the playoffs. The community’s ability to identify and sort WR talent is much better than our ability to rank our RBs. Due to this, almost all of your best WRs are located in the first 8 rounds of the draft. There will be 3-5 difference makers later in the draft and we will aim to identify those guys, but WR ADP chunks get messy. You will see that many WRs in rounds 8-12 will have lower exposure rates. This is due to the following logical fallacy that UD drafters consistently do: WRs ranked from 30-50 are correctly ranked relative to other WRs but are extremely expensive relative to the other 3 positions in drafts. I do not like drafting fringe WRs over potentially high end QBs, RBs, and TEs. 


TE

Total drafted per team: 2-3

ADP trend: TE play does not effect advance rate anywhere close to the other 3 positions, but it is a massive swinger in the Playoffs. Due to this, you need to have exposure to every guy among the Top 8 TEs because nobody knows which one is going to catch TDs in weeks 15-17. There are a couple of meaningful darts you can take later in drafts but our communal group of Top 10 tight ends is clearly where the best producers will be. 


** Disclaimers**

  1. Some players will have the letters FPP (Fantasy Playoff Pop) appear next to their exposure number. FPP is for guys that I do not believe in, but have some chance of having big weeks in the playoffs and could be the variance piece you need to separate from the field and take home the gold.

  2. I will be drawing a lot of stats from an article written by Jared Smola (Draft Sharks). Here is the URL to the article I highly suggest reading it.


https://www.draftsharks.com/article/things-i-learned-doing-fantasy-football-projections


  1. Most other stats will come from Pro football reference or playerprofiler. But keep in mind, this is meant to be a logical thought experiment so not many stats  will be referenced. 

  2. Salary cap info is from SPOTRAC

  3. Some write-ups will be very brief and some long winded. Deal with  it. 


AFC


Bills

Cap Space -41M

Total Draft Picks 10

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Josh

Allen

19.1

QB1

8%

RB

James

Cook

44.2

RB12

4%

WR

Stefon

Diggs

24.6

WR16

6%

WR

Khalil

Shakir

112.7

WR52

1% FPP

TE

Dalton

Kincaid

66.2

TE5

8%


Notes:

Josh Allen has scored 400+ fantasy points in each of his last three seasons. Just draft him. He is an Edge until proven otherwise. 


James Cook finished with 207 fantasy points as the RB 10 overall for 2023. He offers some risk that is being baked into his RB12 ADP> I am cautious because the 4th round is still a goldmine for WR talent plus high end TE play. Cook proved his talent but his league winning upside worries me with Josh Allen as the ultimate TD vulture. He offers a good floor and can play into a winning team if variance plays into playoff advance rates. I don't see a 250+ points fantasy ceiling here. His role can go downhill too if the Bills pursue a complimentary early down back to replace Murray/Damian Harris.


There's a bit of overinflation on Bills WRs right now. Kincaid has to be mixed in even if he had a ton of downside at cost. Diggs' back half of the season last year was brutal but his stat totals were fine and there is really no reason for the team not to feature him again. Also, his cost is reduced from last year. I expect an addition to this WR room, or multiple additions given their 10 draft picks. 



Dolphins

Cap Space -24M

Total Draft Picks 6

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Tua

Tagovailoa

105.6

QB14

8%

RB

De'Von

Achane

17.2

RB7

8%

RB

Raheem

Mostert

91.4

RB27

4%

RB

Jeff

Wilson Jr.

239.4

RB88

0%

WR

Tyreek

Hill

3.4

WR2

8%

WR

Jaylen

Waddle

34.7

WR22

12%


Notes:

Tua for me falls into a category of good-not-great QBs that will always be tumultuous for fans. They go through cycles of being underrated or overrated. Tua is currently in the underrated cycle. While his overall talent and lack of mobility will cap some of this upside; his unreal weapons and insance weekly ceiling mean that you HAVE to draft him at a healthy amount. You don’t need to overdo it. 


The Dolphins under Mike McDaniel have been a Fantasy Gold Mine for pure running back volume/usage. Devon Achane feels very very risky to me and very overrated. I LOVED him last season but now he is hyper expensive and still presents a very fragile profile. However, the Dolphins are not in a position to take a massive swing at RB position, so chances are the efficiency freak will have his chance in the spotlight next season. I’ll go at 8%. Mostert is more fringe for me with his advanced age and top 100 ADP. Mostert’s odds of getting replaced are far higher than Achane’s via a cheap rookie/FA. My exposure will go up if he “survives” the offseason.


Don’t overthink these elite Wide Receivers. Just do it. Especially 4th round Jaylen Waddle (absolute steal). 


Jets

Cap Space 20M 

Total Draft Picks 5

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Aaron

Rodgers

141.7

QB21

3%

RB

Israel

Abanikanda

218.5

RB67

1% FPP

RB

Breece

Hall

6

RB2

8%

WR

Garrett

Wilson

12.2

WR8

4%

WR

Allen

Lazard

233.9

WR99

1% FPP

WR

Xavier

Gipson

239.7

WR127

1% FPP


Notes:

Just don’t trust the Jets. They can only hurt you. I will put faith in Breece Hall’s Talent and projected volume but mostly pass on the rest. 


Pats

Cap Space 86m

Total Draft Picks 8 

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Mac

Jones

240

QB48

0%

RB

Rhamondre

Stevenson

73.8

RB21

4%

WR

Demario

Douglas

161.4

WR69

4%

WR

Kendrick

Bourne

236.5

WR104

0%

WR

JuJu

Smith-Schuster

239.7

WR125

1% 

WR

Tyquan

Thornton

239.8

WR131

0%


Notes:

I am not ready to trust the Patriots yet. I do not think their coaching culture will improve overnight and this roster has issues. Some teams can be basically avoided. If they acquire a top end QB then these exposures will adjust but for now it seems like Jayden Daniels may be their destiny at 3rd overall. I like Daniels for his fantasy possibilities, but it will be hard to see him elevate this supporting cast. Some weight can be put on the discount for Stevenson and potential upside for Douglas.


Steelers

Cap Space 12M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Kenny

Pickett

236.7

QB34

1%

RB

Najee

Harris

84.4

RB26

3%

RB

Jaylen

Warren

97.3

RB30

6%

WR

George

Pickens

63

WR37

5%

WR

Diontae

Johnson

100.1

WR45

10%

WR

Calvin

Austin III

239.8

WR130

1% FPP

TE

Pat

Freiermuth

144.8

TE17

8%


Notes:

The Steelers are a bit tricky because the coaching and overall talent is always good but the results have been murky for many years now. Nobody is necessarily expensive but the discounts aren’t cheap enough to fully overlook the risk of a dud fantasy offense. Pittsburgh has rumors linking to Justin FIelds and Russell Wilson but these options don’t necessarily give what we want for the pass catchers. 


Najee’s price is not unfair but I am just not excited for a guy that presents almost no path to a 300 point ceiling. His rookie season pass volume has been fully sapped by Warren. His rushing floor and likely good health are great, but Najee’s production will be easily replaceable in a Best Ball Format. Similar can be said for Warren but I will put more energy into a highly explosive RB that's available around pick 100 regardless of “situation”.


Pickens is an absolute dog but I doubt this offense ever unlocks his full ceiling. I don’t “love” him in the 6th round. Diontae on the other hand is much cheaper and has some chance to be traded this offseason. He is a monster target earner who is fully healthy now. I'll take swings at a cheap Freiermuth because I still believe in the talent after an injury season, but the TD upside is very murky. 


Browns

Cap Space -7m

Total Draft Picks 9

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Deshaun

Watson

152.6

QB23

10%

RB

Nick

Chubb

71.4

RB19

1%

RB

Jerome

Ford

135.8

RB41

6%

WR

Amari

Cooper

46.2

WR30

8%

WR

Elijah

Moore

172.2

WR73

4% FPP

WR

Cedric

Tillman

238.5

WR113

0%

TE

David

Njoku

87.5

TE9

8%


Notes:

Deshaun Watson was brutal last year in every metric for QBs with at least 150 pass attempts. He still finished as a top 10 QB in 3 of 5 healthy games played thanks to his rushing floor. Keep taking stabs at his dirt cheap price on the off-chance he returns to form. Don’t overdo it.


The Browns ran 50 more plays than any other team last year. Regression is coming all around but this is already baked into Cooper and Njoku’s pricing. I would assume the Browns draft a RB making me cautious with Ford, but I'm still taking stabs at him because we all saw Nick Chubb's knee explode last year. Chubb is almost 30. 



Ravens

Cap Space 12M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Lamar

Jackson

38.5

QB3

8%

RB

Keaton

Mitchell

167

RB51

0%

WR

Zay

Flowers

46

WR29

3% FPP

WR

Rashod

Bateman

206.7

WR87

1% FPP

TE

Mark

Andrews

54.3

TE4

10%

TE

Isaiah

Likely

164.2

TE21

2%


Notes:

You have to work in Lamar.


Keaton Mitchell is a fringe prospect with a late season ACL tear on a team that is about to overhaul their RBs. Pass. 


I love Zay Flowers, he was one of my highest drafted players last season and WR29 is very fair. However, I do not want a Lamar Jackson WR in the 4th round. It is clear Lamar will always limit his WR’s fantasy ceilings when looking at his career yardage/TD totals. It is unlikely Lamar can generate a fantasy WR1. Flowers could potentially dip in cost if Baltimore makes some major additions. 


“Mark Andrews has been top 6 in YPRR among TEs in each of his 6 seasons” (Smola). He is the one Raven’s pass catcher that can give league winning positional leverage at cost, regardless of Lamar. I love Likely but he’s stuck behind Andrews as a TE handcuff. 


Bengals

Cap Space 52M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Joe

Burrow

72

QB7

10%

RB

Joe

Mixon

81.9

RB24

1%

RB

Chase

Brown

108.5

RB32

2%

WR

Ja'Marr

Chase

5

WR4

8%

WR

Tee

Higgins

44.1

WR28

10%


Notes:

The name of the game with Cincinnati is Joe Burrow. He is arguably the second best passer in the league and one of the few non-mobile quarterbacks that can push for 380 fantasy points and an MVP run. Give me his primary pass catchers and give me the discount on Burrow.


Mixon is 28 years old with 1800 career touches. He is now past the Apex for both marks for RBs. I have always liked Mixon but I do not believe he is the type of talent that can overcome this. I do not see his current ADP as discounted enough to offset his lack of league-winning upside. I do not want a “floor play” at this cost. 


I also like Chase Brown but this cost is insane. The Bengals have both Cap and Picks to add competition that will drive this ADP down. If the Bengals enter 2024 with just Mixon-Brown and don't add a significant TE, then I will start leaning into Brown’s upside and draft him at 8% despite cost. 


Chiefs

Cap Space 28M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Patrick

Mahomes

45.1

QB4

8%

RB

Isiah

Pacheco

39.7

RB10

2%

RB

Jerick

McKinnon

239.3

RB83

0%

WR

Rashee

Rice

21.2

WR12

8%

WR

Skyy

Moore

239

WR115

0%

WR

Marquez

Valdes-Scantling

239.5

WR119

0%

TE

Travis

Kelce

43.1

TE2

4%

TE

Noah

Gray

236.5

TE34

0%


Notes:

Just work in Mahomes. 


Pacheco is not talented enough to warrant this cost regardless of “projectable volume”. I am also passing on other bad and fringe players on this team assuming they make some additions.


The Chiefs present one of my boldest bets for 2024 and an example of using “if X is true then Y is true” logic. I am willing to bet that age keeps Kelce from being a difference maker in 2024 even if he has a good season. TE has many good options this year and a very early tight end needs to score above 220 total fantasy points to matter. Kelce is a freak that cannot be quantified by metrics. He will likely perform in a way that a 35-year-old should not be able to. However, this still does not translate to winning a Best Ball tournament.  


Kelce being a slight disappointment is the X; Rice benefiting from this is the Y. I do not think Rice should be this expensive but I also don’t think he is a bust at that cost. Throw in playoff variance and I will take the 8% exposure. Even if the Chiefs make a big addition, there is still potentially extra volume to go around at the cost of Kelce. Rice likely falls in ADP as the offseason goes on, so no need to push it. 


Chargers

Cap Space -20M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Justin

Herbert

85.6

QB11

5%

RB

Isaiah

Spiller

239.6

RB94

0%

WR

Keenan

Allen

36.9

WR25

8%

WR

Mike

Williams

105.3

WR50

1%

WR

Quentin

Johnston

148.6

WR64

2% FPP

WR

Joshua

Palmer

161.2

WR68

3% FPP


Notes:

QB11 is a great price for Herbert but his obvious ceiling concerns have me leaning away in the 7th round. I prefer upside shots at other positions.


Keenan Allen showed no signs of slowing down last season. Age is a concern but there's no reason for LAC not to squeeze every last target out of him. He has 6+ catches per game in 9 straight seasons. Keep it rolling. Mike Williams is 30, injured, and past my patience threshold to still bet on. 


Fade the rest. changes will be made here. 


Broncos

Cap Space -13M

Total Draft Picks 8

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Russell

Wilson

203.2

QB30

6%

RB

Javonte

Williams

95.8

RB29

8%

RB

Jaleel

McLaughlin

146

RB45

2%

RB

Samaje

Perine

239.9

RB100

0%

WR

Courtland

Sutton

100

WR44

2% FPP

WR

Jerry

Jeudy

128.4

WR57

4%

WR

Marvin

Mims Jr.

166.6

WR71

2%

WR

Tim

Patrick

239.9

WR146

0%

TE

Greg

Dulcich

221.8

TE30

2%


Notes:

Broncos RBs accounted for 29.2% of the team’s targets last year, well above the league-average RB target share of 17.8%” - Jared Smola. There is juice here for RBs. 


Sutton had 10 TDs last season and still didn’t make a difference. I'm nearly out on Jeudy but he is cheap enough to bet on. He could be moved to another team and having a better 4th season. 


Not too hyped for this team if they move on from Wilson and fail to acquire a true starting QBr but I do still believe Sean Payton is a good coach.


Raiders

Cap Space 55M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Aidan

O'Connell

238.9

QB36

0%

RB

Zamir

White

126.8

RB37

4%

WR

Davante

Adams

23

WR14

4%

WR

Jakobi

Meyers

102.1

WR46

5%

TE

Michael

Mayer

153.5

TE19

10%


Notes:

The projections are ugly in LV. White may get the starting gig so i'll take a stab. He is not guaranteed to dodge competition if Jacobs does not return. The rest aren’t getting enough of a “low volume offense” discount. I’ll stab at Mayer jumping in year 2 especially if Adams is moved or Jacob’s does not return. Lots of movement is set to happen here that may adjust player projections. 


Titans

Cap Space 85M

Total Draft Picks 

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Will

Levis

186.5

QB28

4%

RB

Tyjae

Spears

69

RB18

8%

WR

DeAndre

Hopkins

76.4

WR40

8%

WR

Treylon

Burks

182.4

WR77

1% 

TE

Chig

Okonkwo

192.1

TE27

0%


Notes:

Will Levis was first in air yards per attempt last season. Jared Smola’s article has tons of numbers to get you amped up for the Titans. Let's just have some fun here and project forward a little.


Spears has plenty of risk with a hefty cost but i'll bite 8% of the time. 


There are many newcomer’s yet to join this team so avoid fringe players. 


Jaguars

Cap Space 30M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Trevor

Lawrence

110.7

QB15

10%

RB

Travis

Etienne Jr.

30.4

RB9

8%

RB

Tank

Bigsby

226.7

RB70

1%

WR

Christian

Kirk

65.7

WR38

10%

WR

Zay

Jones

178.6

WR76

6% FPP

TE

Evan

Engram

85.1

TE8

10%


Notes:

The Jags overall offer value in drafts as people begin to endure “Lawrence fatigue”


Not everyone flashes the way you want in their early career. I’ll keep betting on this team. I expect Ridley to be gone. Zay Jones is boring but has 8TDs in his range of outcomes in the “Alshon Jeffery role” 


Buy into Doug Pederson year 3.


Always Cristian Kirk. 


ETN is the new Joe Mixon. Has the role and all the tools but is always  a mid to back-end RB1


“Evan Engram’s 114 catches last year were the second most by a TE in NFL history, behind only Zach Ertz’ 116 in 2018. Both guys had Doug Pederson as their HC. - Jared Smola 


Texans

Cap Space 74M

Total Draft Picks 8

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

C.J.

Stroud

51.8

QB5

4%

RB

Dameon

Pierce

189.1

RB57

2% FPP

WR

Nico

Collins

15.8

WR9

4% 

WR

Tank

Dell

28

WR18

4% 


Texans are overpriced and have a lot of changes to come. Tank Dell has a nice story, but is still a limited player in my eyes. Collins has a very nice career progression and is clearly a top 25 receiver in the NFL. Yet he still ceded more targets to Tank Dell than I’m comfortable with. Let’s pump the brakes here even though Stroud is a face melter. 


Colts

Cap Space 79

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Anthony

Richardson

54.8

QB6

8%

RB

Jonathan

Taylor

15.2

RB6

5%

WR

Michael

Pittman Jr.

29.4

WR19

8%

WR

Josh

Downs

103.7

WR48

3%

WR

Alec

Pierce

225

WR93

1% FPP

TE

Jelani

Woods

237.4

TE36

0%


Notes:

I'm not super comfortable with anything in Indy but we saw a clear offensive mindset carried by a good o-line in 2023. 


AR ran 4 TDs in his 3 games played. I'll take stabs at that but not overdo it at his ADPt. Those 4TDs are why I hesitate with Taylor despite knowing for sure the Colts LOVE to feature 1 RB. I need TD upside for JT to hit his 300 fantasy point ceiling. 


Michael Pittman reminds me of Brandon Marshall in his consistent dominance regardless of signal caller. Just keep buying. 


I love Josh Downs but his volume is limited (assuming Pittman re-signs)


NFC


Eagles

Cap Space 32M

Total Draft Picks 6

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Jalen

Hurts

34.1

QB2

8%

RB

Kenneth

Gainwell

208.2

RB63

1% FPP

RB

Rashaad

Penny

239.8

RB96

0%

WR

A.J.

Brown

11.4

WR7

8%

WR

DeVonta

Smith

36.8

WR24

8%

TE

Dallas

Goedert

111.3

TE13

8%


Notes:

This one should not be hard to understand.


Cowboys

Cap Space -3M

Total Draft Picks 5

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Dak

Prescott

74.6

QB8

6%

WR

CeeDee

Lamb

2.5

WR1

8%

WR

Brandin

Cooks

137.4

WR60

1% FPP

WR

Michael

Gallup

238.5

WR112

0%

WR

Jalen

Tolbert

239.4

WR118

1%

TE

Jake

Ferguson

93.8

TE10

8%


Notes:

Daks is never going to bust but he likely won't repeat 350 fantasy points again. Especially if they fix the run game. He's a bit overpriced.


Brandin Cooks is moments away from actually turning into a pile of dust. 


Ferguson is a great firewall TE if you miss on the studs. There is no reason he wont have monster volume again. 


You can take stabs at Tolbert if cap/picks limit Dallas and they don’t add to the receiving room. I'm over Michael Gallup. 


Giants

Cap Space 38M

Total Draft Picks 9

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Daniel

Jones

175.6

QB26

1% FPP

RB

Eric

Gray

239

RB80

1%

WR

Wan'Dale

Robinson

157.5

WR67

8%

WR

Jalin

Hyatt

193.8

WR81

1% FPP

WR

Darius

Slayton

223.5

WR92

2%

TE

Darren

Waller

149.3

TE18

2% FPP

TE

Daniel

Bellinger

239.7

TE44

0%


Notes:

Wan’dale has chops. Pass elsewhere. Look to draft whichever RB  eventually projects to absorb the passing volume. 


Commanders

Cap Space 96M 

Total Draft Picks 9

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Sam

Howell

237.7

QB35

2% FPP

RB

Brian

Robinson Jr.

91.5

RB28

2% FPP

RB

Chris

Rodriguez

225.7

RB69

0%

WR

Terry

McLaurin

58.4

WR35

8%

WR

Jahan

Dotson

121.6

WR55

2% 

TE

Logan

Thomas

238.9

TE40

0%


Notes:

There's going to be A LOT of movement here making nobody safe. *If* Maye goes here and pops, then there will be good value here. I will still toss a few darts at Dotson, but he leans closer to bust. McLaurin is a value regardless of future changes. He is as a Low-end WR2 with a fair ADP


I love Brian Robinson and he was one of my guys last season but he is at massive risk for committee/replacement. I don’t see a sure thing here. 


Vikings

Cap Space 40M

Total Draft Picks 6

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Kirk

Cousins

135.3

QB20

4%

RB

Ty

Chandler

124.7

RB36

1%

RB

Alexander

Mattison

222

RB68

1% FPP

RB

DeWayne

McBride

239.9

RB100

0%

WR

Justin

Jefferson

3.8

WR3

8%

WR

Jordan

Addison

52.8

WR32

5%

TE

T.J.

Hockenson

102.1

TE12

1% FPP


Notes:

I would be blown away if Cousins doesn't start for the Vikings in 2024 but there's a real chance they do something here. I'll take my bets on the WR talent regardless of situation but I would still be cautious here. Addison and Hockenson do have a Justin Jefferson problem hurting their Target Shares. Jefferson is a can’t miss player. I still prefer Chase and ARSB > JJeff. 


Ty Chandler is interesting but too fringe for a 10th round pick. He's going before EVERY rookie RB. lol. 


Hock already has injury and target share hurdles. Adding possible QB hurdles would award him the coveted Red Flag Trifecta. 


Bears

Cap Space 82M

Total Draft Picks 6 (two top 10)

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Justin

Fields

81.6

QB9

8%

QB

Caleb

Williams

111.5

QB16

3%

RB

Roschon

Johnson

122.8

RB35

2%

RB

Khalil

Herbert

143.3

RB43

10%

WR

DJ

Moore

16.4

WR10

8%

WR

Darnell

Mooney

230.6

WR96

2% FPP

TE

Cole

Kmet

116

TE14

8%


Notes:

My full assumption is the Bears take Caleb Williams. Fields’ rushing floor means you take him regardless. I don’t love Williams at his cost for a non-mobile rookie. Although, I believe his arm talent can support Moore and Kmet (and maybe possible newcomers).


The Bears backfield is a wealth of potential fantasy value. Roschon Johnson being the lead back by ADP is very presumptive. Khalil Herbert 100% has Kyren William’s pop profile and could dominate in his age 26 season. The Bears do not have incentive to add to this backfield right now and if they move on from Justin Field, it opens up a lot of TD volume for RBs. If they do spend on a significant addition, then that would really nullify both of the current RBs. I’m willing to make that bet on Herbert.



Packers 

Cap Space 12M

Total Draft Picks 8

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Jordan

Love

83.2

QB10

8%

RB

Aaron

Jones

64.9

RB17

2% FPP

WR

Jayden

Reed

51.1

WR31

6%

WR

Christian

Watson

81.1

WR42

2%

WR

Romeo

Doubs

94.8

WR43

2%

WR

Dontayvion

Wicks

132.8

WR58

8%

TE

Luke

Musgrave

133.1

TE16

8%

TE

Tucker

Kraft

188.5

TE24

2%


Notes:

Jordan Love’s floor is high enough that he won’t kill you if he regresses from his late season efficiency in 2023.


Aaron Jones still has pop, but (Age + recent injury history/potential new competition) is a scary equation. 


Jayden Reed was my most drafted WR in BBM4 with exposure at 26%. I am not sure he will necessarily score more points this year. Not every player's progression moves upwards in a linear fashion. I don’t think he gets worse. I have to look further into Reed so if you want a higher exposure then I wouldn’t argue against it.


My biggest concern is that there’s poor target consolidation on this team. Love can spread it around and I think it’s possible that they add another weapon. I’ll place my bets on talent with Reed, Wicks, and Musgrave. I don’t want to write Watson off completely, but he’s not cheap enough to overlook the obvious bust potential. Doubs is a nice player, but a little expensive for “just a guy”.


Lions

Cap Space 65M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Jared

Goff

114

QB17

10%

RB

Jahmyr

Gibbs

10.7

RB4

8%

RB

David

Montgomery

73.2

RB20

4%

WR

Amon-Ra

St. Brown

6.9

WR5

8%

WR

Jameson

Williams

103

WR47

2%

TE

Sam

LaPorta

29.2

TE1

8%


Notes:

There’s no reason to expect any big changes here from 2023. I'm not super hyped to take a floor RB like Montgomery in the 7th round but you can’t ignore him entirely for many reasons. 




Seahawks

Cap Space 16M

Total Draft Picks 9

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Geno

Smith

169.8

QB25

8%

RB

Kenneth

Walker III

52.4

RB13

8%

RB

Zach

Charbonnet

127.3

RB38

2%

WR

DK

Metcalf

31.4

WR20

8%

WR

Jaxon

Smith-Njigba

61.9

WR36

6%

WR

Tyler

Lockett

117

WR54

2% FPP


Notes:

Geno is a decent, cheap firewall QB if you need 250 points. 


The Seahawks don’t seem likely to make major waves at the skill positions with free agents or draft capital. I will take upside bets on their young guys and continue to trust Metcalf’s obvious WR2 floor. KW has everything you want to be a back-end RB1 and could be a league-winner if he dominates TDs this season. Charbonnet does not scare me off Walker but he does temper expectations. 


Tyler Lockett is an all-time great for Fantasy Football. He is also dust. 


Cardinals

Cap Space 57M

Total Draft Picks 9

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Kyler

Murray

90.2

QB12

10%

RB

James

Conner

83.8

RB25

6%

RB

Michael

Carter

237.2

RB76

2%

RB

Emari

Demercado

239.8

RB95

0%

WR

Michael

Wilson

149.3

WR65

6%

WR

Rondale

Moore

239

WR114

0%

TE

Trey

McBride

51.2

TE3

8%


Notes:

Kyler Murray is probably the best value QB on the board right now. 


The Cardinal’s have plenty to build-with but it doesn't make sense for them to focus on re-working the RB room. They have many more important issues. 


I know 2 things for sure about James Conner. 

  1. He’s a Fantasy Beast when healthy.

  2. He will miss 3-6 games a season (at least)


Michael Carter is forgotten but could be a huge value if his job “survives” the offseason.


Michael Wilson is a fun dart throw but everyone expects some big moves for this WR room.


Trey McBride is the truth.


49ers

Cap Space 6M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Brock

Purdy

94.3

QB13

8%

RB

Christian

McCaffrey

1.2

RB1

8%

RB

Elijah

Mitchell

176.9

RB53

3% FPP

RB

Jordan

Mason

239.3

RB83

0%

RB

Kyle

Juszczyk

239.6

RB92

0%

WR

Brandon

Aiyuk

21.4

WR13

8%

WR

Deebo

Samuel

23.3

WR15

8%

WR

Jauan

Jennings

228.6

WR95

2%

TE

George

Kittle

67.7

TE6

8%


Notes:

Business as usual. 


Rams

Cap Space 52M

Total Draft Picks 7

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Matthew

Stafford

129.7

QB19

6%

RB

Kyren

Williams

12.6

RB5

8%

WR

Puka

Nacua

9.2

WR6

8%

WR

Cooper

Kupp

41

WR26

2%

WR

Demarcus

Robinson

233.2

WR98

1% FPP

WR

Tutu

Atwell

237.4

WR107

0%


Notes:

Idk you figure out what to think of Nacua and Williams. I guess just go with it?


Don’t let the training clips this offseason put you back onto a 4th round Cooper Kupp. He still has massive injury concerns with the ankle and related compensation injuries. 


Buccaneers

Cap Space 48M

Total Draft Picks 6

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Baker

Mayfield

154.4

QB24

5%

RB

Rachaad

White

41.2

RB11

2%

WR

Chris

Godwin

71

WR39

8%

WR

Trey

Palmer

185.4

WR78

1% FPP

TE

Cade

Otton

159.3

TE20

1% FPP


Notes:

This team is the most obvious regression candidate team in the history of Fantasy Football. 


White is purely volume dependent. I do not want that so early in drafts with so much offseason to go. It's unlikely his price goes up so why risk it now. 


Godwin-level talent is just an easy pick in the 7th round regardless of situation.


Baker Mayfield is more likely to be the next Ryan FItzpatrick than he is to be the next Drew Brees.


Saints

Cap Space -36M

Total Draft Picks 5

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Derek

Carr

182.6

QB27

6%

QB

Taysom

Hill

239.1

QB37

0%

RB

Alvin

Kamara

61.1

RB15

3%

RB

Kendre

Miller

145.3

RB44

8%

RB

Jamaal

Williams

239.6

RB92

1%

WR

Chris

Olave

26.1

WR17

10%

WR

Rashid

Shaheed

124.3

WR56

3%

WR

A.T.

Perry

217

WR90

1%

WR

Michael

Thomas

234.8

WR100

0%

TE

Juwan

Johnson

175.3

TE23

2%


Notes:

Carr is cheap enough to accept the 280 fantasy point ceiling. 


Kendre is worth taking shots in the 12th round. He has an inside track to the early down role. Kamara is only an efficient receiver at this point in his career. He still projects for unreal targets. 


Olave will hopefully have a full season of his starting QB and no real target competition. Sign me up.


Shaheed is very fun but costly for his projected target share even if he leaves town. 


Panthers 

Cap Space 42M

Total Draft Picks 6

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

QB

Bryce

Young

195.7

QB29

2%

RB

Chuba

Hubbard

120.2

RB34

2%

RB

Miles

Sanders

198.1

RB60

2%

WR

Adam

Thielen

153.5

WR66

3%

WR

Jonathan

Mingo

197.3

WR82

1%


Notes:

Pass. 


Falcons 

Cap Space 43M

Total Draft Picks 8

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

RB

Bijan

Robinson

8.3

RB3

8%

RB

Tyler

Allgeier

164.6

RB50

2%

WR

Drake

London

41.3

WR27

8%

TE

Kyle

Pitts

94.6

TE11

8%


Notes:

Blindly trust talent sometimes. Hope the rest falls into place. 





Free Agents 

Position

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

RB

Saquon

Barkley

22.8

RB8

8%

RB

Josh

Jacobs

57.9

RB14

8%

RB

Derrick

Henry

61.9

RB16

5%

RB

Austin

Ekeler

75.4

RB22

0%

RB

Tony

Pollard

76.5

RB23

8%

RB

D'Andre

Swift

99.8

RB31

8%

RB

Devin

Singletary

119.3

RB33

1%

RB

Zack

Moss

163.2

RB49

6%

RB

J.K.

Dobbins

185.5

RB56

1%

RB

Antonio

Gibson

193

RB58

2%

RB

AJ

Dillon

205.2

RB61

2%

WR

Mike

Evans

32.2

WR21

4%

WR

Calvin

Ridley

57.2

WR34

8%

WR

Marquise

Brown

108.8

WR51

5%

WR

Gabe

Davis

137.6

WR61

5%

WR

Curtis

Samuel

174.5

WR74

3% FPP

WR

Tyler

Boyd

197.7

WR83

3%

WR

DJ

Chark Jr.

238.2

WR110

1%

WR

K.J.

Osborn

238

WR109

2%

TE

Dalton

Schultz

127.1

TE15

8%

TE

Hunter

Henry

188.6

TE25

6%

TE

Noah

Fant

212.2

TE29

6%

TE

Jonnu

Smith

239.5

TE42

1% FPP

TE

Hayden

Hurst

239.9

TE55

1% FPP

Notes


It is important to remember that players hit free agency for a reason. Sometimes prime players do slip through the cracks but often these guys are overrated to begin with. Especially if they stop caring after getting paid by a new team (i.e. Miles Sanders). 


Jacobs is cheap enough to be a value player if he returns to the Raiders but expensive enough to be a bust if he signs in a bad situation. I doubt he gains value going anywhere but LV because of “vibes” (happens all the time). 


Barkley is the opposite because he is still a generational talent. He will continue to be suffocated in NY. He is still young enough to eclipse 300 points easily if a healthier offense scoops him up and FEEDS HIM. 


Henry is old but could lead the league in TDS. 


Ekeler has dead legs. Might help early on but I need to win late in the season.


Zack Moss is only 26 and impressed last year. 


Swift and Pollard have landing-spot dependent upside but are not overpriced right now. 


The rest of the RBs are not good enough to overcome bad landing spots or getting replaced by rookies. 


FA WR are pretty MEH overall. Evans suffers annual ADP whiplash between “under priced and overpriced”. You can figure out which he is this year. I am ok taking shares of Ridley at his ADP. I think he can improve if given the right situation. He probably doesn't move too much in cost as the offseason goes on. Gabe Davis can have darts thrown. He is not a great talent but he is also probably too cheap right now. He is a candidate for a drastic ADP rise. The rest are just ok where they are being drafted.


FA TE offers some intrigue but I'm not obsessing over any. Fant’s upside is still theoretically there if he gets to the right offense (please Cincinnati). 


Rookies

QB

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

Caleb

Williams

111.5

QB16

3%

Jayden

Daniels

119.5

QB18

8%

Drake

Maye

145.1

QB22

6% 

J.J.

McCarthy

212.4

QB31

4%

Michael

Penix Jr.

225.3

QB32

2%

Bo

Nix

233

QB33

4%


RB

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

Jonathon

Brooks

127.9

RB39

30%

Blake

Corum

135.2

RB40

30%

Trey

Benson

137.3

RB42

8%

Bucky

Irving

150.3

RB46

15%

Braelon

Allen

154.6

RB47

8%

Audric

Estime

157

RB48

1%

MarShawn

Lloyd

169.9

RB52

1%

Ray

Davis

182.2

RB55

1%

Jaylen

Wright

205.9

RB62

15%

Will

Shipley

215.6

RB65

8%

Frank

Gore Jr.

229.4

RB71

4%

Dylan

Laube

233

RB72

0%

Dillon

Johnson

234.3

RB73

0%

Cody

Schrader

236.6

RB74

2%

Isaiah

Davis

238.6

RB79

0%

Carson

Steele

239.9


8%

Daijun

Edwards

240


0%


WR

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

Marvin

Harrison Jr.

19

WR11

2% FPP

Malik

Nabers

35.2

WR23

8%

Rome

Odunze

55.5

WR33

4%

Brian

Thomas Jr.

77.5

WR41

4%

Troy

Franklin

104.1

WR49

12%

Keon

Coleman

115.7

WR53

0%

Adonai

Mitchell

135.9

WR59

0%

Ladd

McConkey

140.1

WR62

3%

Xavier

Worthy

142.5

WR63

8%

Ja'Lynn

Polk

165.9

WR70

8%

Roman

Wilson

170

WR72

4%

Xavier

Legette

176.9

WR75

0%

Devontez

Walker

186.7

WR79

4%

Malachi

Corley

189.6

WR80

10%

Malik

Washington

201.9

WR84

1%

Ricky

Pearsall

206.6

WR86

4%

Jermaine

Burton

227.2

WR94

1%




TE

Name


ADP

ADP Ranking

Exposure

Brock

Bowers

76.8

TE7

4%

Ja'Tavion

Sanders

174

TE22

4%

Ben

Sinnott

237.4

TE37

1%


Notes:

Rookies in early offseason drafts are the name of the game. Outside of a few outlier WRs, they all have a huge probability of massive ADP spikes. Buy now.


I am not going to pretend to be the rookie whisperer. Take any approach here you feel is the most profitable. My desired exposures also reflect my personal rookie rankings to a degree. I will have many changes here as the offseason provides us more info. 


A few notes I think can be easily deduced now with the info we do have:


  1. Just keep betting on rookie mobile QBs. Jayden Daniels isn’t even close to AR’s high ADP this time last year. Even if he busts, it's the right pick.

  2. Jonathan Brooks and Blake Corum can be put onto every team you have at almost no cost. Both players will surge in cost after the NFL Draft. 

  3. Brooks' ACL recovery timeline allows him to be a mid/late season superstar. 

  4. Bucky Irving. That is all.

  5. Puka Nacua had the greatest rookie season of all time and was the WR7 overall. WTF are we doing with Marvin Harrison Jr. 

  6. Nabers’ upside is too close to MHJ’s to be so much cheaper

  7. Brock Bowers could be the best tight end to ever live and be a bad pick this early. Laporta was an exception last season. Rookie TEs almost never hit. 

    1. Still won't entirely avoid Bowers. Gosh Darn Laporta is in my head

  8. I like Malachi Corley. 

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