2022 RB Analytical Review part 4

Author: Bill Jones

Introduction

Welcome to the fourth part of my blog series where I perform an analytical review for running backs fantasy performance from 2022. In this blog, we will be wrapping up our initial review of the running back in the 2022 season through the lenses of a few classic statistical measures. Just like part 2 of this series, we will be using average and standard deviation to review the consistency of performers but instead today we will be looking at attempts and yardage (touchdowns are just too low volume – the results look very wonky). So, whether you're a seasoned veteran or a newcomer to the world of fantasy football, this blog will provide valuable insights into the performance of quarterbacks in the 2022 season, so let’s get started!

Statistics 101 (skip section if you read part 2 of this series)

As we continue down our analytical review, we are going to use specific data science concepts as tools to help us gain insights. As referenced in the intro, this blog will be using average and standard deviation calculations as the base of our analysis. We all should know what an average is but some of us may need a refresher on standard deviation. Standard deviation is a way to quantify the variability or dispersion of values in a set of data. A low standard deviation indicates that the values are clustered closely around the average, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are more spread out. In our analysis of quarterback fantasy performance, the standard deviation will help us understand how consistent a player is on a week-to-week basis, where a player with a high standard deviation indicates the player is very inconsistent (low floor, high ceiling) vs. a low standard deviation means a player is putting up consistent performances on a weekly basis (e.g., 2018 Keenan Allen). 

Ground Rules

Read post #1 in series for ground rules explanation.

Visualizations and Analysis

With the ground rules established and the data sources defined, we are now ready for the next step in our analysis series.

As any fantasy football player knows, consistency is key. When it comes to drafting players for your team, you want to choose players who will reliably score you points week after week, rather than players who might have one great game but then disappear for the rest of the season. That's where this visualization comes into play. By plotting players' production averages on the X-axis and their standard deviation on the Y-axis, we can get a sense of how consistent they are as performers.

Analysis: I would like to look at Ezekiel Elliott and Joe Mixon. Zeke Elliott consistency stands out here in these visualizations. He was able to week over week get consistent touches vs someone Joe Mixon who was very inconsistent. You can see these big swings in Joe Mixon’s touches below.

As Zeke ages we may see a decline in his workload but this is a great example of how a situation where a player may be devalued due to lack of high ceiling but in some roster constructions the floor is incredibly valuable when looking to fill the RB2 role. The key with this type of player is getting him at the right cost as a player to fit into a "hero running back" build.

Conclusion

This wraps up my mini study on running back fantasy football performance from 2022. I look forward to expanding my analysis to other position groups and increasing levels of depth throughout the 2023 offseason. Check out next week’s post as we run back this analytical series for the tight end position!

*This blog post was enabled by ChatGPT. The text was generated by me, and the content is my own, but some sentences and wording were provided by the model. I take full responsibility for all information produced in this blog. More information about OpenAI and their technology can be found at https://openai.com.*