Leveraging Distribution for Fantasy Football Drafts

Authors: Billy Jones

Introduction

As the anticipation for fantasy football draft season builds, analysts flood the internet with season-long player projections. While these projections serve as indispensable tools for shaping draft strategies, limiting our focus to mere averages would be a disservice to the complexity that underlies each player's potential. To be successful in fantasy football a more sophisticated approach is required, one that transcends basic mean projections and embraces the profound framework of distributions. Understanding and leveraging these distributions can revolutionize the way managers make decisions in individual games and throughout the entire season. Throughout this blog post, we will discuss the implications of outcome distributions on fantasy football and how you should be thinking through the range of outcomes for the players on your team while on the clock in your draft(s). From assessing individual game to season-long outcomes, we will shed light on some basic principles of distributions and how understanding these can empower managers to make more informed decisions and develop strategies to effectively manage and leverage the risks and upside associated with unpredictability. Let’s jump in.

Distributions

Before we delve into the impact of distributions on fantasy football decisions, let's grasp the concept itself. Distributions represent the full range of results for any specific event, statistic, prediction, etc., presenting a comprehensive view of the outcomes rather than a singular average value. I find the easiest way to think about distributions is through visualization. Density plots or histograms are the most common ways to visually show distributions. These visuals illustrate the distribution with the Y-axis representing frequency or density, while the X-axis displays the statistic under consideration.

In each of the above, the graph shows a normal distribution with a mean of 10.5, standard deviation of 4, and simulated random population of 100,000 records. The familiar normal distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution or bell curve, is characterized by a symmetrical bell-shaped curve with the majority of data points clustered around the mean value and lesser around the tails. Distributions like this are most common, yet, they can take various shapes and sizes as well. They can be flatter and wider, indicating a broader range of outcomes, or narrower, suggesting more predictable results.

Apart from the normal distribution, fantasy football outcomes can often follow skewed or bimodal distributions. Skewed distributions are asymmetrical and exhibit a longer tail on one side. This occurs when data is biased towards one end of the distribution, leading to an imbalance of outcomes. Additionally, bimodal distributions are intriguing phenomena that display two distinct peaks or modes. This indicates the presence of two separate clusters of outcomes.

Connecting Distributions to Fantasy Football Archetypes

Understanding how outcome distributions manifest in different fantasy football archetypes is crucial for making well-informed decisions during the draft and all year long. Let's explore how outcome distributions apply to both individual game outcomes and season-long performances, focusing on the distinction between the different distribution types.

Single Game Outcomes

Normal Distribution - Consistency and Reliability

A running back with little playing time competition on a team committed to the run as they have a rookie quarterback. This player should have a more stable week-to-week volume as a consistent game script and role is expected. This archetype might have their production ceiling capped by the rookie quarterback’s upside, but their floor production should be quite stable based upon usage volumes.

Bimodal Distribution – Ping Ponging Good and Bad Games

On the other hand, a running back with a bimodal distribution of yards per game might be affected by an inconsistent role based on game script. This archetype experiences two distinct clusters of outcomes, representing the potential for explosive performances in favorable game scripts and lackluster showings in unfavorable ones. Players who are the clear receiving or goal-line back would fit into this archetype. 

Right-Hand Tail Skewed Distribution – Has the ceiling game in his bag 1-2 times a year

Players with a right-hand tail skewed distribution are expected to have a few explosive plays throughout the year but won’t get enough playing time to make a meaningful impact on fantasy rosters. These players may not be rosterable in managed lineup leagues, but in best-ball formats, they could be the key to taking down a million dollars. 

Season-Long Performances 

Normal Distribution - Steady and Predictable

A receiver on a high-volume passing offense with a talented and secure starting quarterback would represent a normal season long distribution. This player is relatively insulated by the offenses volume barring an injury to the player and/or his QB. 

Bimodal Distribution – New team or coaching staff

Conversely, a receiver on a new team or coaching staff can have their role be relatively unknown which might demonstrate a bimodal distribution for their season long performance. The new coaching staff or system might heavily favor or dislike the receiver. They could be big hits for fantasy football or complete duds. 

Right-Hand Tail Skewed Distribution – Rookie that we don’t know much about

Players with a right-hand tail skewed distribution in season-long performances are akin to the single-game right-hand tail skewed archetype but expanded to the entire season. They are players who are most likely to have limited usage but could have their role increased drastically as the season progresses and they produce. This is the case for many rookies and young players, with their fantasy success being a matter of involvement in the game plan versus physical talent. 

Season X Game Player Spectrum

Normal X Normal – Reliable Weekly Output and Predictable Season Production

Players with consistency in both individual games and season-long production. They are dependable assets that can anchor your fantasy roster but can also be fools gold as discussed in the next section. 

Bimodal X Normal - Boom or Bust Weekly Output with Consistent Team Role

Players with a bimodal distribution in individual games but normal season-long performances present exciting boom-or-bust potential while maintaining a clear role on the team.

We could talk about players that fit into each profile, but the truth is, every player exhibits some level of normal, skewed, and bimodal characteristics in their season-long and single-game profiles. It's just a matter of the degree to which these distributions manifest. Rather than bucketing players into narrow profiles, let's continue the discussion around distributions in the context of the most critical inflection point of the fantasy season—the draft.

Some Distributions Rules to Follow in your Drafts

In fantasy football drafts, every pick holds unique significance, and as the draft unfolds, your objectives and risk tolerance should adapt accordingly. The early rounds serve as the foundation of your team, where proven track records, elite upside, and high floors are sought after. As the draft progresses into the middle and late rounds, the focus shifts, and understanding the varying objectives and risk tolerance for each pick becomes crucial in crafting a well-rounded team capable of handling both consistency in weekly matchups and the potential upside to dominate your league.

Premium Round Picks

The premium round picks lay the groundwork for your fantasy football roster. These early selections can be the difference between a good team and a championship-winning one. While consistency and stability have their merits, the ultimate goal is to secure players with the potential for league-winning upside. Whether you are competing in a large tournament with thousands of participants or a home league with a few friends, players with significant upside in their profile are essential to any championship team. Starting your draft with high-ceiling players who possess league-winning potential sets your team apart from those who shy away from calculated risks.

You Need a Team That Does Both

Finding the right equilibrium between high upside and consistent production is paramount for constructing a winning team. While the allure of high upside players is enticing, solely relying on players with extreme volatility can be a recipe for disaster. While they have the potential to deliver explosive performances, they also carry a higher risk of disappointing outings. Overloading your roster with players with wide-ranging weekly outcomes can lead to inconsistent point totals, hindering your progress in the playoffs when it matters most.

The key lies in not overpaying those who offer consistent and meaningful production week after week with limited upside. Projectible volume is found at many points later in the draft and we should be targeting the cheapest possible avenue to obtain it.

Emphasize the value of selecting players with high upside in later rounds.

Late rounds in fantasy football drafts present a unique opportunity to take calculated risks and secure players with high upside. These picks should not be wasted on players who provide no upside as you look 6 weeks out as injury insurance for your RB2. Instead, they should be approached strategically to target players who have the potential to become league-winners with a few things going their way. The beauty of making high-upside picks in the later rounds is the low cost of draft capital. Since these players are often taken after the starting lineup is filled, there is minimal downside if they don't perform as expected. However, hitting on just one or two of these late-round picks with significant upside can dramatically elevate your team's performance and increase your chances of contending for the championship. The nominal cost of later round picks is perfectly demonstrated by Mike Leone’s draft capital curve. In this curve you can see the diminishing value of each pick where later picks are almost worthless compared to top 50 players.

Connected Bets

Understanding the concept of connected bets and making live adjustments to rankings during the draft can give you a strategic advantage over your opponents. The idea of connected bets centers around the correlation among players within the same offense. When one player excels, it often positively impacts other players in that offense (if the Quarterback throws for 380 yards and 4 touchdowns, someone on their team must be on the opposite side of those passes). During the draft, as we assess our roster's composition, we should be adjusting your rankings also to set up “premium stacks”. If we have drafted a top-tier quarterback or a star wide receiver from a particular team, we should be prioritizing other players on their team at or slightly ahead of their ADP. This works when we view our selections in a universe where certain things are true. The best way to illustrate this is with an example. If you draft Stefon Diggs in the first round then you are hinging your year on his performance, and therefore Josh Allen’s performance too. The success of these players is interconnected and by selecting one, the value of the other on your team increases as you are already operating under the assumption that Stefon Diggs is a smash this year. The relevance and need of stacking will vary based upon the size and format of the contest or league you are playing in.

Conclusion

The application of distribution of outcomes in fantasy football extends beyond the draft season. Understanding and leveraging these distributions can help managers make informed decisions on the waiver wire, individual game player selection, as well as throughout the entire season. By embracing these basic data principles, fantasy players can gain a competitive edge and navigate the uncertain terrain of fantasy football more effectively. Thank you for taking the time to read this theoretical discussion on the role of outcome distributions. If you found this content insightful, be sure to check back on my blog for more analytically driven content to enhance your understanding of the game. Stay tuned for more fantasy football analysis but until then, may your fantasy teams thrive, and your player takes never be wrong!

*This blog post was enabled by ChatGPT. The text was generated by me, and the content is my own, but some sentences and wording were provided by the model. I take full responsibility for all information produced in this blog. More information about OpenAI and their technology can be found at https://openai.com.*