Swinging for the Fences: Steamer Projection Pitcher Standouts

Author: Billy Jones

Introduction

What’s up fantasy sports fam? Ready for another round of insights? In our last chat, we broke down pitcher production in The Dinger 2022 and 2023 tournaments and what that meant in terms of advance rates and the optimal way to draft. Today, we're transitioning from macros level theories to the nitty-gritty of player level projections, focusing on some players who've caught my attention while reviewing the current Steamer projections posted on FanGraphs. It's time to zoom in on the micro-level, examining standout players throughout the draft set to dominate fantasy this upcoming season. Get ready for a deep dive into individual performances, as I iterate this offseason to find the strategy and players needed to win $100,000. Let's jump in!

Data Source

The source for today’s analysis will be Average Draft Position “ADP” from Underdog Fantasy and Steamer Projections as of 12/27/2023. Renowned as an industry standard, Steamer Projections are among the earliest and most reputable forecasts to emerge each year and are used widely throughout the fantasy baseball industry. More about the people behind these projections at www.steamerprojections.com.

Steamer Projections per Game

Let’s start by translating the Steamer projections on a per game basis into the Underdog scoring format and visualize the results. As a reminder, Underdog scoring is as follows: Earned Runs (-3), Wins (+5), Quality Starts (+5), Strikeouts (+3), and Innings (+3). 

Now, as we look at the projections visualized, the big thing that stands out is the outsized impact that strikeouts and innings have on scoring. Take Spencer Strider, for instance. His per game total score of 41.97 is made up of -6.28 from Earned Runs, 2.42 from Wins, 3.06 from Quality Starts, 24.87 from Strikeouts, and 17.90 from Innings. Despite his stellar ERA and an impressive quality start rate on a top-notch team, it's the sheer volume of innings and strikeouts that drives most of his scoring.  

Correlated Rates

To zero in on the players I look to be heavily invested in this season, I'm prioritizing two statistics this offseason: strikeouts per 9 and quality start rate. The importance of strikeouts in Underdog scoring is clear, as evidenced in the visual above. The rationale for quality start rate is that these starts are the ones we are looking for from our pitchers in this format. A quality start is a start in which the pitcher goes 6+ innings and allows 3 or less runs. In best ball, games that are not quality starts are more likely to be thrown out based upon the best ball scoring format where only the best scores are taken. Additionally, the quality start rate projections are highly correlated to win rate, innings per game, and ERA, both statistically and in simple logic. Check out the correlation matrix and plots below that represent the strengths of the various statistical relationships.

Player Standouts

As we pivot to the analysis section, the visual that we are going to be leveraging is a plot of the strikeouts per 9 and quality start rate with ADP (average draft position) being the color. This will allow for color to unearth some players we may want to target or fade based upon the Steamer projections.

Guys the Chart Loves

- Tyler Glasnow – Outside of Strider, Glasnow has the best profile. The only question mark here is volume as Glasnow has never thrown more than 120 innings in a season at the big league level. Glasnow feels like a risky pick but carries the upside worthy of his lofty ADP.

- Kodai Senga & Tarik Skubal – These two pitchers profile very similar, if not better, to many guys going 2-3 rounds ahead. Their high strikeout figures and projected volume of quality starts make them pitchers I will be targeting in many of my drafts.

- Hunter Green & Carlos Rodon – Sitting in the middle rounds of the draft are two strike out studs. Hunter Green is 4th in k per 9 projections while Carlos Rodon is 6th. Not the greatest quality start rates but when these players do hit, they should hit big.

- Nathan Eovaldi & Marcus Stroman – only Eovaldi and Stroman have ADPs greater than 145 with a quality start rate at or above 50%. Honorable mention: Tanner Bibee was to be in this group but his ADP has already risen to below 140 by the time this was posted.

Guys the Chart Hates

- Zac Gallen & Aaron Nola – Of all the pitchers highlighted in orange, yellow, or red, Gallen and Nola possess the weakest profiles. While undoubtedly talented, their value appears to be tied more to volume and name value over statistical profiles.

- Eury Perez & Cristian Javier – Perez and Javier project horribly from a quality start rate perspective. Both carry nice strike out profiles but at their current ADPs just north of 100, I am looking for players who are projected to contribute to my scoring more frequently. 

- Mitch Keller – Mitch Keller was fantastic in 2023 and made his first All Star team. Those that drafted him last year reaped the rewards but his current ADP in the 90s is quite staggering for someone who isn't expected to rack up strike outs or quality starts. Just like Gallen and Nola, the upside on this ADP seems to be tied to volume, not statistical profile, and this is not where I am looking to make my bets.

Guys I’m Not Sure What to do with

- Blake Snell – Snell’s high strikeout rate makes him an interesting target. However, his elevated ADP paired with a low innings projection and quality start rate make him a challenging player to determine where I want my exposure levels to land. While his individual start upside is enormous, the lack of consistent win and quality start boosts limits his expected season-long contribution. Nevertheless, in terms of spike week/game potential, Snell is as good as anybody.

- Walker Buehler – Buehler’s projection, with an ADP hovering around 115, doesn't scream great value due to his lower strikeout rate and quality start rate projections. These low projections are undoubtedly tied to him coming back from injury but if he can regain his old form, he is a smash at where he is currently being drafted. My expectation is the Dodgers will manage his workload carefully and/or his stuff will take a moment to return to form, making him like a poor advance rate player, however, he could easily be the crucial player you need in the playoffs if the schedule aligns and the perennially stacked Dodgers support him with a few timely multi-win weeks in the playoffs.

Conclusion

That’s a wrap for this data driven pitcher review based upon the Underdog Fantasy scoring system and current Steamer projections. I hope you found this deep dive into pitcher projections helpful and build out your draft strategies accordingly. Stay tuned for more fantasy sports analysis but until then, may your fantasy teams thrive, and your player takes never be wrong!