Swinging for the Fences: Pitching Production

Author: Billy Jones

Introduction

What’s up fantasy sports fam? I’m thrilled to have you back for another deep dive into fantasy sports data. Following the exploration of the strategic intricacies of The Dinger 2023 in the last post, it's time to focus the lens of our investigation on the pitcher's mound. In our previous Underdog MLB post, I noted the undeniable power that steering clear of an early investment in pitchers had on advance rates. The success of this approach in The Dinger 2023 left me wondering if this was it a function of what happened in 2023, or could this drafting strategy be the skeleton key to success in the Underdog draft rooms? So, join me as I peel back another layer of secrets, digging into the data with the goal of helping you shape a winning drafting strategy for the upcoming 2024 tournaments. Let's dive in and find out!

Data Source

The scope of this investigation will include both The Dinger 2023 and 2022 contest data. The Dinger 2023 boasted 54,984 entries across 4,582 drafts, compared to 4,512 entries distributed over 376 drafts in The Dinger 2022. 

Best Ball Points

Best Ball is all about accumulating fantasy points. To kick off the analysis, I visualized player Average Draft Position (ADP) against their Average Best Ball Points Contributed, to visualize points contribution tiers.

Looking at 2023, Spencer Strider led the way with approximately 900 Average Best Ball Points Contributed. His dominance was notable, separating him from the #2 pitcher, Gerrit Cole, by about 100 Average Best Ball Points. Joining the elite tier of 800+ contributors was Kevin Gausman, only Zac Gallen and Framber Valdez were north of 700 points, and there was a significant number of pitchers in the 600s.

From a macro perspective, the top of the draft unsurprisingly contributed the most points. As we move through the draft rounds points decreased, but we saw a substantial flat tier from roughly rounds 5 through 12. After round 12, point contribution noticeably declined. We also see how fragile pitching health and points contribution can be, noting there were a fair number of duds across all rounds of the draft.

Shifting our focus to 2022, we identified a different shape at the top of the draft. Unlike 2023, the top picks did not separate as distinctly from pitchers in the mid rounds. After this point production declined similar to 2023.

A consistent theme in both years is the replaceability of elite pitching production in later rounds. Comparable or slightly lower production was consistently found in rounds much further into the draft. This reinforces a key takeaway that aligns with the previous post: the lack of strategic advantage an early round pitcher pick can deliver.

Advance Rate

Now, let's dive into advance rates, a core metric in Best Ball analysis that gauges a player's impact on team success across the tournament.

In 2023, a clear advance rate shape was present, where middle-round pitchers drove success. Early round pitchers, with a single notable exception in Spencer Strider, didn't quite measure up. Despite Strider's impressive 900+ Best Ball Points Contributed, it was Zac Gallen, a seventh-round pick, who truly stole the crown of advance rate king. Strider found himself in the second tier of pitchers for advance rates, similar to Luis Castillo, Kevin Gausman, Blake Snell, Logan Webb, and Pablo Lopez. This demonstrates the limited ceiling early round pitchers can bring on one’s advance rate, even when the player goes nuclear. Rounds 6 through 13 were the pitching sweet spot, where hitting on ceiling outcomes wasn’t necessary for success, as many pitchers in this range had advance rates above expectation. Towards the end of the draft, advance rates took a notable dip, which makes sense as we saw a notable Best Ball Points Contribution drop off in the first set of plots.

Despite the challenges of a small sample size and a different advancement structure than we play now, a familiar advance rate shape is observed. Early rounds struggled, middle rounds shone, and late rounds saw a decline. Following the adage "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me," the consistent reappearance of this pattern suggests there might some value in leaning one’s exposures to pitchers from the middle rounds of the draft.

A Stance I am Ready to Take

I find myself inclined to challenge the current market sentiments regarding Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole, who currently boast ADPs of 11 and 14, respectively, as I believe they are both overpriced.

Spencer Strider was undeniably the pitcher of the year in 2023 yet his prowess did not translate into being the most impactful pitcher in terms of advance rates. This can be attributed to his third-round ADP, which, despite his stellar performance, capped the impact the pitchers stellar performance had on teams success. Additionally, Gerrit Cole, who was drafted as the #1 Pitcher (around where Strider is currently being drafted), was the #2 Pitcher in terms of Best Ball points contributed. What is eyebrow raising is the below expectation advance rate that Cole produced. It seems counterintuitive for a player to be the overall 2 at their position, which I would classify as a "hit", but still have a negative impact on a team's probability of success in the tournament. 

I hope the market will come to the the same conclusion, prompting a correction in their ADPs to settle around the 2/3 turn. Until such an correct occurs, I’ll be carrying a 0% exposure to Strider and Cole in my portfolio. Completely fading players of such caliber feels a bit foolish and scary but my data-driven approach indicates that exposing myself to these high cost pitchers is not the play for success in this tournament. It's a calculated risk, but one that I believe is grounded in a strategic understanding of the game dynamics.

Conclusion

That’s a wrap for another data driven review of The Dinger tournament hosted by Underdog Fantasy. I hope you found this deep dive into pitcher best ball points contributed and advance rates helpful. In the next post I will turn to some player takes and leverage Steamer projections to highlight some pitchers who I think have intriguing spike week profiles. Stay tuned for more fantasy sports analysis but until then, may your fantasy teams thrive, and your player takes never be wrong!