The BBM Magic Number is ____
Author: Bill Jones
Introduction
Hey football analytics fam, welcome back to my blog! As the best ball summer is upon us, I can't help but immerse myself in the wealth of Best Ball data that is available with the Best Ball Data Bowl. In this blog, I’ll continue my studies and explore the most basic question when thinking about roster construction and advancing from one’s pool into the playoffs “How many points does this team need to score?”. By uncovering this simple figure I can begin to process the best ways to construct my BBMIV rosters. Get ready to join me on this thrilling journey, as we navigate the intricacies of Best Ball and unlock the secret to advancing to the BBMIV playoffs. Let's kick off this Best Ball summer with a bang!
BBM Basics
For those who may be less familiar with Best Ball Mania (BBM) by Underdog, it’s a unique and immensely popular fantasy football tournament. Best ball is a fantasy football format where participants draft a team and then have no in-season management requirements like waiver wire additions or setting lineups. Instead, the highest-scoring players are automatically placed in the starting lineup, and leagues are decided based on cumulative season points rather than head-to-head matchups.
BBM takes best ball to another level with its distinct two-stage structure: the regular season and playoffs. During the 14-week regular season, teams compete against others in their draft, with the top two teams advancing to the playoffs. The playoffs then consist of a series of single-week DFS-style competitions, where teams from different drafts, potentially with overlapping players to your roster, vie for advancement to the next round.
Data Source
Before I jump back into analytics, I would like to acknowledge the data source. The data used for this analysis was obtained from Underdog Fantasy and is the basis for the Best Ball Data Bowl. There have been three BBM’s but the Best Ball Data Bowl competition states the competitors should only be using the BBMII and BBMIII data as the BBMI data is a bit of a mess, so I’ll be following the same rules here.
Total Team Points
When it comes to advancing in Underdog Fantasy's Best Ball Mania, the magic number is 1,600 points (or so). This is the threshold one needs to reach to be in contention for a spot in the playoff rounds and a total of 1,800 points or more all but guarantees a playoff round berth. These figures have held true for both BBMII and BBMIII, indicating some reliability in thresholds needed for advancement. Breaking it down across the 14-week regular season, you should aim for an average weekly target of approximately 115 points to reach the coveted 1,600 mark. Keep this target in mind as you strategize your roster construction and make key player selections to propel your team towards playoff glory.
Position Details
QB
In both BBMII and BBMIII, we observe a right shift in the distribution of points for playoff teams. This indicates that, on average, playoff teams tend to have higher-scoring from their quarterback slot than non-playoff teams and getting the quarterback position right is a key piece to advancement to the playoffs. It's worth mentioning that despite this, some teams with exceptionally high-scoring quarterback slots did not make the playoffs. This is a great reminder of the importance of figuring out the quarterback position as well as the limitations it has in terms of driving a team's advancement.
TE
When examining the distribution of tight end points among playoff teams and non-playoff teams, we can observe a subtle shift in favor of higher scoring profiles for the playoff teams and it's important to note that this difference is incredibly minor. It leads me to believe that top tight end play is not a definitive factor for advancing to the playoffs and not requisite in making the playoffs.
WR & RB
At my work we have a phrase that we like to commonly reference when making decisions “work on what matters the most”. In the context of advancing in Best Ball Mania, what matters the most is having strong scoring performances from your wide receiver and running back rooms as unlike the quarterback or tight end positions, it is evident that these positions play a pivotal role in driving teams towards advancement. While the specific strategies for acquiring those crucial points may vary, the certainty remains that focusing on the performance of wide receivers and running backs is essential for securing a spot among the top teams. As shown on the scatterplots below a combined score of approximately 1,200 is what is needed from your 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, and 1 flex spot across 14 weeks. This equates to approximately 85 points per week or 14.25 points per player per week.
Conclusion
I hope you enjoyed this high-level look at roster construction from BBMII and BBMIII and find these datapoints useful for your Best Ball Summer 2023 drafts. I look forward to expanding my analysis on this dataset and potentially entering the Best Ball Data Bowl! Stay tuned for captivating analytics posts and follow me on Twitter (@NFL_Billy_Jones).
*This blog post was enabled by ChatGPT. The text was generated by me, and the content is my own, but some sentences and wording were provided by the model. I take full responsibility for all information produced in this blog. More information about OpenAI and their technology can be found at https://openai.com.*
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