WR Draft Capital Analytics with Rookie Rankings

Author: Bill Jones

Introduction

Hey fantasy football analytics fam, welcome back to my blog! With the NFL draft finished, many of us are eagerly anticipating the influx of new talent that will soon hit the league. For those of us that play dynasty fantasy football, it’s important to start thinking about how we can evaluate these rookies, if you haven’t already, and formulate an opinion about their potential impact on your fantasy teams. 

Over the past few weeks, I have thoroughly enjoyed reading many of my colleagues’ models and ranking systems that have been published leading up to the draft. In doing this research I had one recurring frustration in most analysts ranking processes. This frustration was that almost all of them (which were transparent about their process) included projected draft capital as a data point for their prediction. To me the inclusion of this data point felt a bit odd as the NFL draft capital is essentially already a ranking that bakes in all the other data points in the model. This confused me and I messaged my buddy @SharpClarke to get his opinions. He saw where I was coming from and raised the point that draft capital could being used as a proxy for projected target share for these players. This idea was interesting to me, and I thought validating it through a quick data study would be fun. So, that’s what I am doing here today, a quick study on the relationship between draft capital and target share. I hope you enjoy my findings and at the bottom you can find my rookie WR rankings.

Ground Rules

Before we jump into my ranking approach, I would like to note to the readers of the ground rules I am working with. The data used for this blog was obtained from NFLFASTR for 2011 through 2020. Additionally, I am looking at only wide receivers drafted in rounds 1 through 5 of the NFL draft.

I am using target share in this study, and not something like fantasy points. While we ultimately do care about fantasy points here, I believe fantasy output is as much of a function of the offense a player is on and not necessarily indicative of the players talent. A great example of this is Drake London from last year who put up a huge target share but the #31 ranked receiver on the season due to the low volume/sputtering Atlanta pass offense. By solely looking at fantasy production London’s dominant performance would have been missed due to the team he played on.

Visualizations and Analysis

With that now explained, let’s get into the relationship between draft capital and wide receiver target share. The first visualization being shown is a box and whisker plot of target share by pick range. The pick ranges are 10 pick intervals and the box and whisker plot show the distribution of outcomes by players in that range. Box and whisker plots are particularly useful when looking at distributions as they present minimum, maximum, mean, median, and the interquartile range (middle 50%).

Analysis: There appears to be a clear trend between target share distribution and draft capital. As the picks become later and later the interquartile range of target share outcomes reduces as well. In the first visual, which includes all seasons, we see a notable drop-off in target share distribution at around pick 80. In the second visual, which includes only rookie season production, we continue to see this strong relationship with the drop-off in production happening after pick 20 and another drop off after pick 80. 

Next, I wanted to switch up the visualization and analysis up to using a scatter plot and a regression analysis. By using a scatterplot, I can see every data point in the population and put a trend line on the data while the use of a regression analysis allows for me to put a numerical value to the strength of the relationship of the two data points. 

Analysis: Draft capital = target share. It really is that simple. When looking at the trends for both individual season, rookie season, and career target share there is a clear trend that appears. The R^2 figure for individual season target share is 0.1298, rookie season target share is 0.2214, and career target share is 0.2846. If you come from another domain other than sports analytics these R^2 figures may seem low but in the world of sports, where human actions create a lot of noise and uncertainty, these figures are actually quite meaningful.

Project for next time

Perform a study on rookie target share independent of draft capital for those who hold their dynasty rookie draft in advance of the NFL draft. I would to create a model that included obvious data points of production statistics and athletic testing but also some sort of tape grade like metric to encapsulate attributes of a player that the data may not be able to show. This model would be most akin to a prospect ranking that a team might use when evaluating when to draft a player in the NFL draft. 

Additionally, once draft capital is known, I would be fascinated to create models that predicted career, season, and rookie target share based upon items such as lost target share from prior year, prior year on field grade of other wide receivers on the team, physical skillset, college production, projected quarterback grades, etc. in addition to draft capital. These models would be the most useful for fantasy football purposes.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the world of wide receiver rookie rankings can be complex and overwhelming, I hope this post has shown you that creating an effective ranking system can actually be quite simple. By focusing on the straightforward data point of draft capital one has a ranking starting point that is incredibly accurate and predictive. Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed the content, and good luck in your drafts as we enter the time where most dynasty leagues are hosting their rookie drafts! Check back next week for another blog post as I continue my football analytics journey!

Bonus - Dynasty Rookie WR Ranking w/ Commentary

Methodology – Start with the chalk and let draft capital lead the rankings with slight adjustments for landing spots where targets seem available. Also only ranking the top 80 picks as that was the tier break observed above.

Tier 1

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Pick #20 - Seattle Seahawks – the consensus top WR entering the draft may have slipped a little down the draft board, but he was still first WR off the board. Landing spot isn’t ideal for 2023 as the WR room seems a little crowded but the way Tyler Lockett’s contract is allocated makes him a likely cut candidate next offseason.

2. Jonathan Mingo – Pick #39 – Carolina Panthers – Dunk on me all you want but this has potential for DK Metcalf 2.0. The comparison based upon draft capital, athleticism, alma mater are all there and I am ready to ride the hype train… But on a serious note, brand new management in Carolina started their new regime by selecting their franchise QB and a WR for him to throw to. This is a dream landing spot for the WR out of Ole Miss as management is invested and Mingo is likely already the best wide receiver on the team (current target competition is Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall). This is a pretty big move up the rankings, but Mingo has all the ability to be a fantasy star and unlike any other receiver in this draft might have the opportunity to show it from day 1. That’s the major difference here, the path I see to Mingo gain value is much easier than what I see for any of the other receivers in this draft.

3. Zay Flowers – Pick #22 – Baltimore Ravens – I know the Ravens paid a pretty penny to sign Odell Beckham Jr. but I’m not convinced he is still the player he used to be. I see a very real world where Zay is the top wide receiver this year, but even if he is the second option Odell isn’t likely to be around after this year. Unfortunately, Flowers has to compete for targets with Mark Andrews and that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon. Who knows? Maybe this offense will be able to support two fantasy pass catchers now that Todd Monken is in charge. 

4. Quentin Johnston – Pick #21 – Los Angeles Chargers – As written previously, the Chargers GM Tom Telesco loves big WRs and Quentin Johnston fits the mold. Another crowded WR room in 2023 but 2024 Johnston might see Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams not on the roster as their combined cap hit would be $67,177,500 vs $24,077,500 if cut. Landing in a Justin Herbert lead offense and slotted as the clear incumbent to aging receivers makes it hard for me to not rank him lower than #4. The reason I have Johnston below Flowers is pre-draft stigma. We are talking about two players with identical draft capital and potential for a primary role in a dynamic offense so I’ll lean the player with the ascending public perception. 

5. Jordan Addison – Pick #23 – Minnesota Vikings – I think this is a brilliant real football pick but not what I wanted to see for fantasy football. Addison is likely to start as the Vikings from day 1 but he has Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson ahead of him on the food chain and unlike the players ranked above him I don’t see that changing. Last year we saw DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle put up big fantasy numbers as WR2s on their teams but both of these players were top 10 picks whereas Addison fell to the back half of the first round in a weak draft. Based upon his rookie draft ADP and alternative options in that range, I won’t be drafting much of Addison this year.

Tier 2

6. Jayden Reed – Pick #50 – Green Bay Packers – 2nd round wide receivers are the packers thing, why would this draft be any different? Jayden Reed’s NFL Draft profile reads as primarily a slot receiver, but we have seen with Cooper Kupp that isn’t necessarily a problem. When reviewing Reed’s highlights, he repeatedly cooked Big 10 corners using quickness and fantastic route running while still making a bunch of contested catches (often due to poor quarterback play). I’m not anointing him as the new Cooper Kupp but this is a great pairing next to Christian Watson who fills an entirely different role on the team. Reed is likely to get an opportunity from day 1 and could be a short and intermediate monster for Jordan Love. I wonder how many first-round picks Romeo Doubs is worth now?

7. Marvin Mims – Pick # 63 – Denver Broncos – This is a great landing spot for Marvin Mims. There are some pretty big savings by cutting Courtland Sutton after this year and there is no guarantee that Jerry Jeudy will have his 5th year option picked up. If Mims can show out, especially towards the back half of the season, this wide receiver room might be his in 2024.

8. Rashee Rice – Pick #55 – Kansas City Chiefs – I expect Rashee Rice to get an ADP boost due to landing in Kansas City but I see this landing spot as a negative as the Chiefs like to spread the ball around to multiple receivers. Last year we thought we might see some fantasy boost for JuJu Smith-Schuster but that didn’t happen and we even Tyreek Hill’s usage go up after leaving the Kansas City. Rashee Rice will probably be a good NFL pro, but I just don’t see the talent that would necessitate Mahomes to change his ways. 

9. Cedric Tillman – Pick # 74 – Cleveland Browns – Unlike many of the wide receivers on this list, Cedric Tillman has the size to profile as an outside receiver. Additionally, Donovan Peoples-Jones is entering the last year of his rookie contract and many analysts believe Tillman was drafted to replace him. I tend to agree and if Amari slows down in 2024 as a 30+ year-old Tillman could have found himself in a lead role for the Browns offense. 

10. Jalin Hyatt – Pick #73 – New York Giants – I struggle to rank Hyatt. The current Giants wide receiver room is pretty gross so there are plenty of opportunities to be had but Hyatt’s field stretching ability feels to be a bit of a mismatch for Daniel Jones and the Giants’ short passing game. Offensives can obviously evolve but Hyatt’s boom-bust profile is something I am only interested in for best ball drafts.

11. Josh Downs – Pick #79 – Indianapolis Colts – An undersized receiver that appears to be earmarked for a slot and short yardage role on a team that just invested in a developmental running centric quarterback that struggles in the short and intermediate passing game. Josh Downs fills a role for the Indianapolis Colts, but I question the fit being a fruitful one for fantasy football.