2022 QB Analytical Review part 4

Author: Billy Jones

Introduction

Welcome to the fourth and final part of my blog series where I perform an analytical review for quarterback fantasy performance from 2022. In this blog, we will be wrapping up our initial review of the quarterback in the 2022 season through the lenses of a few classic statistical measures. Just like part 2 of this series, we will be using average and standard deviation to review the consistency of performers but instead today we will be looking at attempts and yardage (touchdowns are just too low volume – the results look very wonky). So, whether you're a seasoned veteran or a newcomer to the world of fantasy football, this blog will provide valuable insights into the performance of quarterbacks in the 2022 season, so let’s get started!

Statistics 101 (skip section if you read part 2 of this series)

As we continue down our analytical review, we are going to use specific data science concepts as tools to help us gain insights. As referenced in the intro, this blog will be using average and standard deviation calculations as the base of our analysis. We all should know what an average is but some of us may need a refresher on standard deviation. Standard deviation is a way to quantify the variability or dispersion of values in a set of data. A low standard deviation indicates that the values are clustered closely around the average, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are more spread out. In our analysis of quarterback fantasy performance, the standard deviation will help us understand how consistent a player is on a week-to-week basis, where a player with a high standard deviation indicates the player is very inconsistent (low floor, high ceiling) vs. a low standard deviation means a player is putting up consistent performances on a weekly basis (e.g., 2018 Keenan Allen).

Ground Rules (skip section if you read part 1-3 of this series)

Before we jump back into the analytics, I would like to remind the readers of the ground rules we will be playing with. The most common scoring system is as follows so that’s what we will be going with:

1. Passing Touchdowns: 4 points for each touchdown pass.
2. Passing Yards: 1 point for every 25 passing yards.
3. Rushing Touchdowns: 6 points for each rushing touchdown.
4. Rushing Yards: 1 point for every 10 rushing yards.
5. Fumbles Lost: -2 points for each fumble lost.
6. Interceptions (INTs): -2 points for each interception thrown.

Additionally, I want to note we will be focusing on a pool of 32 quarterbacks (shown below). The data used for this analysis was obtained from pro-football-reference.com, and all games where the quarterback had less than 10 passing attempts were removed to mitigate games where the player may have been injured or playing in garbage time. This will help ensure that the analytics aren’t skewed by anomalous game results and allow us to gain comfort in the conclusions we draw from the results.

Aaron Rodgers	Deshaun Watson	Josh Allen	Mac Jones	Taylor Heinicke
Andy Dalton	Geno Smith	Justin Fields	Marcus Mariota	Tom Brady
Brock Purdy	Jacoby Brissett	Justin Herbert	Matt Ryan	Trevor Lawerence
Dak Prescott	Jalen Hurts	Kenny Pickett	Matthew Stafford	Tua Tagovailoa
Daniel Jones	Jared Goff	Kirk Cousins	Patrick Mahomes
Davis Mills	Jimmy Garappolo	Kyler Murray	Russell Wilson
Derek Carr	Joe Burrow	Lamar Jackson	Ryan Tannehill

This analysis only encompasses 32 quarterbacks and therefore it's possible that some of your favorite quarterbacks were excluded. The sole exception among quarterbacks with more than 9 starts is Zach Wilson, who was not included due to widespread agreement that he is not good at football.

Visualizations and Analysis

With the ground rules established and the data sources defined, we are now ready for the next step in our analysis series.

As any fantasy football player knows, consistency is key. When it comes to drafting players for your team, you want to choose players who will reliably score you points week after week, rather than players who might have one great game but then disappear for the rest of the season. That's where this visualization comes into play. By plotting players' production averages on the X-axis and their standard deviation on the Y-axis, we can get a sense of how consistent they are as performers. Additionally I am going to present a violin plot as that is another insightful way to look at a distribution.

Analysis: I would like to look at Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins, 5^th and 6^th in yards per game. Justin Herbert’s consistency stands out here in these visualizations. He was able to week over week put up quality passing yard production vs someone like Kirk Cousins who was very inconsistent. You can see these big swings in Kirk Cousins yardage production below.

On a per game basis these players had an ~8 yards per game difference but this analysis shows the boom bust nature of Kirk Cousins vs the consistency of Justin Herbert. Now let’s turn our attention to rushing yard performance.

Analysis: Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields rushing yards production stands out from the rest. Lamar Jackson was a bit more consistent but did not have as high of a ceiling as Justin Fields. You can see these big swings in Justin Fields yardage production below.

Side note: Justin Fields full season average was 76.2. Justin Fields week 6 and on average was 94.9 with 9 out of 10 being 60 yards or higher. Very curious to see how the fantasy football community views him entering the 2023 season (especially after the recent DJ Moore acquisition).

Conclusion

This wraps up my first mini study on fantasy football performance from 2022. I look forward to expanding my analysis to other position groups and increasing levels of depth throughout the 2023 offseason. Check out next week’s post as we run back this analytical series for the running back position!

*This blog post was enabled by ChatGPT. The text was generated by me, and the content is my own, but some sentences and wording were provided by the model. I take full responsibility for all information produced in this blog. More information about OpenAI and their technology can be found at https://openai.com.*